It’s a bit ugly out there in the global grain futures market this morning, no green anywhere. US corn, wheat and soybean futures were sharply lower. Paris milling wheat futures and London feed wheat futures also fell away. The weaker soybean market at Chicago spilled across as losses in both Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures.
The fall in Paris rapeseed futures in the Feb24 slot equates to a day-to-day decline here in AUD terms of roughly AUD$7.16 per tonne. With local basis widening again yesterday, and some rain across parts of NSW today, it’s hard to see the trade not following the move in the global markets lower today.

The prospect of rain across the US corn belt beat the lower weekly crop condition ratings for corn and soybeans. Much of the driest parts of the central corn belt are predicted to see 20-50mm of rain between Wednesday and Saturday. The improvement in the weather map, both short and mid-term, triggered a round of selling which in turn triggered technical selling exacerbating the fall across grains. Weaker crude prices and a higher close on Wall St may have seen some fund manager grain and oil money flow to the stock market.
Wheat appears to be the innocent bystander that got hit by a truck. With 97% of the US winter wheat crop in head quality ratings will probably mean little going forward unless we start to hear reports of weather damage or head scab there. The latest push higher in US wheat values was mostly caused by the increases in corn and beans dragging the grain index higher. In the process US wheat found itself once again priced out of the international market. Prices here have seen basis eroded from +79c/bu on the 15th to -5c/bu yesterday. To say that the trade has not factored in enough fat to absorb a good percentage of this reduction in US futures would be an understatement. Maybe it’s not dry enough to see 79c/bu basis but surely 30c+ is a fair call.