Chicago soybeans were the surprise in overnight trade, closing 27c/bu
(AUD$14.86) higher @ US$1352c/bu (AUD$744.10) in the Jan 24 slot. Soybeans
leant support to the oilseed complex resulting in better closes at both
Paris for rapeseed futures, and at Winnipeg for canola futures. Taking the
move in the AUD / Euro into account the move in Paris rapeseed in the Feb24
slot is worth more that AUD$20 per tonne this morning.
The punters were quick to forget recent rains and are now focused on the
approaching heatwave that will kill off the US corn and soybean crop
(sarcasm). Traditionally the last two weeks of July is when the US sets its
summer highs. To see temperatures rising in the forecast is of no surprise
to anyone but the caffeine fuelled day traders at the futures exchange.
Enjoy the rally, maybe partake, here have a Redbull. 
The 1-7 day forecast for the US has high 30's creeping as far north as
southern Nebraska and just staying south of the central corn belt where
temperatures could still push into the mid to low 30's. By the week
commencing the 18th the heat moves well north, pushing into N.Dakota and
eastern Montana as well as parts of the central corn belt. Will this "kill"
the US corn and soybean crops, probably not, will it prune yields, it may
well do so to those crops with less-than-ideal subsoil moisture. Keep an eye
on the crop ratings over the next few weeks.
This week's US crop progress report is mixed. The central corn belt has
around 20-30% of the crop silking at present. The heat will come right at
mid flowering, so not ideal. The week-on-week crop rating for US corn did
improve this week, up from 51% G/E last week to 55% G/E this week, nice
rain. The soybean crop will also be in mid bloom across the northern states.
The crop condition rating for soybeans was also higher, improving just 1% in
the G/E range to 51%. Winter wheat harvest is at the midway point and is
rated at 40% G/E, unchanged. 72% of the spring wheat crop is now in head.
The heat will come at grain fill, not ideal. US spring wheat is rated at 47%
G/E, back 1%. Canadian wheat will probably be hit the hardest, watch the
prairies.