10/7/23 Prices

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Harvest pressure in the US capped the wheat futures market there. The HRWW
contract at Chicago took it the hardest as it had rallied as much as the
spring wheat contract since Monday but is also the grade in the middle of
harvest. Spring wheat has a way to run yet before it sees a header. 
Dry weather across the Canadian Prairies may yet see the HRWW and Spring
wheat spread increase as we move into the US autumn. Currently the spread
between HRWW and DNS wheat futures for the Dec23 slot is 40c/bu (AUD$22).
That's better than the $5 or $10 we are seeing offered on a new crop
multigrade contract here.
The weather forecast for the Canadian Prairies hasn't improved much
overnight. Southern Alberta and the SW corner of Saskatchewan should see
15-30mm mid to late next week but much of central and eastern Saskatchewan
is forecast to remain dry. 

In the US the prospect of good rain across the US corn and soybean producing
states pressured Chicago markets lower. Corn futures closed the week
basically where they started. The lower soybean market spilt over into the
oilseed market in both Canada and Europe. The Winnipeg canola contract
shedding a few dollars in the January slot and Paris rapeseed futures also
closing lower. The fall at Paris in the Feb 24 slot roughly equates to a
plausible day to day decline here of about AUD$7.31 given a flat basis.

The French soft wheat rating was left unchanged at 81% G/E. Harvest there
was roughly 10% complete as of July 3rd. Italy has introduced a new lower
grade for durum with a test weight of 72kg. The discount from the 78kg / 12%
grade is roughly E45/t. Interesting to note there are few French offers as
yet.

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