Egypt confirmed they picked up 235kt of Russian wheat overnight. Values are US$12.50 to US$15.50 higher than the last tender but payment terms were also modified and reflect the longer payment interval. Even so, in real terms the price of the wheat was also a little higher than expected. There had been trade talk that the “unofficial” minimum price for Russian wheat had been set at US$250 FOB Black Sea but this sale saw values well above this, closer to US$262 FOB with freight of US$14.50 to US$17.69 depending on the port of loading…… freight …. could also be a whole other game now too.
The wheat will arrive at Egypt for roughly US$279. On the back of an envelope that’d be close to AUD$310 XF LPP equivalent.

India is set to cut their import duty on wheat to encourage inbound shipments. The government there continues to talk down current trade estimates of imports of a massive 9mt, stating this is unlikely to happen. They just need some imports into the south to cap domestic price increases… wink wink

Ukraine are joining the list of milling wheat producing countries that are struggling with quality. Usually the Ukraine wheat crop produces around 70% milling wheat. After weather impacted on quality this year that percentage is expected to fall to as low as 40% of the harvested wheat meeting milling wheat specs. Add the milling wheat supply squeeze to sharply higher execution cost for Ukraine wheat and you can see why Russian wheat was about US$9.00 cheaper than Ukraine wheat in the Egyptian tender this week.

Paris rapeseed futures for the Feb24 slot slipped E2.50 overnight, the Jan24 slot at Winnipeg also fell, both potentially putting pressure on canola here.