The “rally” in US wheat futures fizzled out overnight, the funds seeing the jump as a selling opportunity. The catalyst for the decline was increasing pressure from Russian wheat out of the Black Sea.
Weekly US export sales were 18% up on the previous week and also higher than the last 4 week average. At 438kt is wasn’t huge but it was pretty much in the middle of the trade estimates prior to the release of the data. Cumulative US wheat sales remain below last years numbers for this time.

StatsCanada had another stab at the wheat production estimate yesterday. Spring wheat at 29.835mt it’s a smidge higher than their last estimate a week or two back. The estimate is 13.1% below last years number and 5.1% below the 5 year average. Although potentially the second smallest crop in 8 years it is well above the drought stricken crop of 2021-22 which weighed in at just 22.422mt.
The increase was due to a slight increase in area and yields, as questionable as that may be, that’s what’s on the table and unlikely to be changed until their grower survey data is in and that data is made public in December.
The canola crop was revised slightly lower to 17.368mt. This puts total supply at 18.9mt against total demand expected to be close to 18.6mt.
Barley production was also reduced, now estimated at 7.842mt, a year on year fall of 21.5% and back 15.6% on the 5 year average. A timely reduction given that Aussie barley is now again competing into the Chinese market.

There is still no confirmation of an Indian wheat purchase from Russia but we do see India attempting to limit trade and consumer stock volume.