Wheat futures in the US and Paris closed in the green. The slightly weaker AUD helps the conversion a little, the move in Chicago worth roughly AUD$6.48 per tonne. Paris was a little more subdued, milling wheat there closer up E1.50 per tonne (AUD$2.48). The rally in Chicago wheat futures was said to be mostly technical trade.
World indicators for wheat remain generally unchanged. Ukraine / Russia war continues to see export terminals along the Danube being targeted. Ukraine have said over 100 port structures have now been damaged. Putin continues to show no sign of re-establishing the grain corridor unless his demands are met. At this stage the export pace of Russian grains has not been impacted. Ukraine export pace, although a little slower when compared to the start of the marketing year last year, is still moving along at a reasonable pace.
The size of the Russian wheat crop continues to grow, private analyst there estimating the crop is now closer to 91mt. This has also seen some private analyst increase Russian wheat export projections to around 48.6mt. This compares to the latest USDA number pegging Russian production at 85mt and exports at 49mt. This does represent scope for larger Russian ending stocks, the difference between private production estimates and the USDA is about 6mt. Wouldn’t it be convenient if India put up their hand to buy 7mt of Russian wheat, that’d round things off nicely.

While the world has been focusing on the flow of Turkish durum into Italy and N.Africa the US has managed to sell 100kt. Accumulated sales for this marketing year are now double the volume for the same time last year. All this while the Canadian crop gets smaller. Overnight 1CWAD13 durum bids across SE Saskatchewan were a smidge lower, the December lift averaging about C$503.72 ex farm.