There was little change in US and EU wheat futures overnight. Paris milling wheat in the Dec23 slot actually closing unchanged at E235.75.
Winnipeg canola futures continued to come under some harvest pressure, futures values slipping C$3.50 in the Jan24 slot. Cash bids out of SE Saskatchewan for canola were also a little lower, slipping C$3.90 per tonne for a December lift.
Cash bids for 1CWAD13 durum out of the Prairies was basically unchanged, a Dec23 lift averaging about C$501.25 /tonne XF. French durum out of Port La Nouvelle was also unchanged at E400. Turkish, Russian and Kazak durum continues to fill the void left by a smaller Canadian, French, Italian and Australian durum crops….. for now.
Private estimates for Australian wheat production continue to fall. Some now as low as 21mt. The official estimate is looking very unlikely after a harsh September across eastern Australia that included little to no rain, frosts and excess heat, what a combination to have during flowering and grain fill. There are also reports of some wheat fields in the north of NSW now “dyeing in”, as opposed to ripening through natural senescence. This often leads to pinched or shrivelled grain and low test weight. A reduction in test weight from 82kg to 76kg, is almost a 10% reduction in production even if the crop is still making grade.

There is talk of a push towards more government control of the Russian wheat market. Traders have noted the absence of Russian FOB offers on Friday. Some suggest this is to set the base price, a price that had been unofficial at US$270, maybe soon this will be a lot more official. With Russian wheat production at 91.5mt, this may stall exports more than the current export capacity limitations are, thus building ending stocks into the new year.