Both spring wheat and hard red winter wheat futures in the US continue to fall. Pressure on these two grades is coming from not only slow demand due to higher prices that were expected to ration demand, but also from the stronger USD this week. Although weekly US wheat sales were a little higher than expected at 544kt. Marketing year to year comparison still shows that the cumulative volume this year is sub par, with US sales so far just 5.473mt.
With harvest for HRW complete in the US and spring wheat harvest in both the US and Canada complete or very near to it, there is now ample stocks in N.America to keep pressure on prices, at least for the short to mid term.
Black Sea milling wheat continues to be priced well against both US and European offerings, and will continue to pressure international values in the short to mid term. Russian milling wheat now showing at least a US$80 discount to Argentine wheat of a similar grade C&F China. Russian wheat is also around US$28 cheaper than PNW HRW from the USA, C&F China.
East coast Australian values remain at a premium to most other exporters into the Asian markets. Production across NNSW and QLD, where the prime milling grades are generally produced, has been devastated by drought. Production estimates now in free fall. It is expected that most Australian wheat exports will be shipped from southern or western ports. Some of those shipments potentially destined for Australian east coast consumers.

Safras & Mercado project Brazil will export around 1mt more soybeans in 2024 than their current projection for 2023. The group calls Brazilian production closer to 168.9mt (USDA @ 163mt), eclipsing the current estimate for the 2023 crop which the USDA has pegged at 156mt, which was 25.5mt larger than the previous year. That is phenomenal growth from Brazil. Export capacity, storage and logistics may be their major hurdle going forward.