Russia, they never have an issue with talking their book. Grain corridor deals, export delays, port problems, go slow inspections. According to a Reuters report yesterday Russia’s Ag Minister has proposed a six month ban on durum wheat exports.
Russia isn’t a major durum producer, and the main production area in Siberia is closer to China than Italy. This year Russia and Turkey have both managed to export durum into the Mediterranean market including Italy which was struggling with quality after a poor finish both there and in France. The influx of durum from Turkey in particular capped prices initially, but eventually resulted in the Italian market slipping back well off the highs.
Overnight prices for durum wheat in France and Canada was basically unchanged.

The AUD rallied 0.79% against the US dollar overnight. This could counter any plausible upside when converting the slight rally in US wheat futures back to a local value. The US Fed decided to leave the official rate unchanged at 5.4% but didn’t discount future increases but also said they were not considering a reduction in the short term. What this means for the AUD in the mid term is unclear. If we increase rates further here than we’d have to expect to see a higher AUD, lower rates the opposite. There is still speculation of a US recession. Canada has officially entered recession.
If the local retail sector is any judge of the health of the economy and the impact the current cost of living is having on household expenditure. Than in reality (which is often overlooked) one would think that a rate hike here would be like taking a knife to not only the urban family as well as the local retail sector but there’s also a good chance that the knife would also get firmly placed against the throat of the governing party at the time. I’m not convinced that Australian politics has much say over local RBA policy, but local pollies would ware the flack, where’s my pitchfork.