Generally international grain futures pushed lower overnight. This move lower in futures, combined with a 30pt rally in the Aussie dollar, may present some resistance to better prices here today. Higher grade wheat generally fared better. Paris milling wheat, US HRWW and spring wheat futures all just a touch lower, while nearby soft red winter wheat futures at Chicago were the biggest loser in the wheats.
Chicago soybean futures pushed lower, weighing on the oilseed market and dragging both ICE canola futures at Winnipeg and Paris rapeseed futures lower. The move in the Feb24 slot at Paris was E6.00 lower. Taking the higher AUD into account that move equates to about AUD$8.54. Winnipeg was lower, not shedding as much in AUD terms as the Paris contract though, back roughly AUD$6.91. Cash bids across SE Saskatchewan fell roughly inline with canola futures. Durum across SE Sask did manage to claw back a significant slice of the sharp fall in average values on Friday. A Dec23 lift increased in value by C$16.58 on average, taking back around 60-70% of the fall. Durum values remain under pressure while cheaper Russian and Turkish durum continues to be delivered into both the Italian and N.African market in the short term.
Seven day rainfall totals across the Argentine wheat regions are improving, most places now seeing at least 25-30mm of rain and some locations across Cordoba seeing as much as 60mm. Heavy rain is becoming an issue across SE Brazil where weekly totals in some location exceed 200mm. This is in sharp contrast to parts of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, both major soybean regions, where rainfall totals have been 60-40% of normal over the last two weeks.
Back in June 2022 The Economist had a front page “The Coming Food Catastrophe” this came at the end of a sharp rally in wheat futures. Basically the same time the headline was published wheat fell hard, as it has since. Their latest headline reads “The End Of Wheat”, so I guess it’s time to buy.