Chicago soft red winter wheat futures were hit pretty hard last night, although it’s getting more common to see 20c/bu moves at Chicago these days. Wheat, and to a lesser degree corn, futures were likely caught up in the heavy selling in Chicago soybeans as funds cleared their long bet after some decent rain fell across Brazil and Argentina over the break. More heavy rain is also expected across the major soybean and corn regions of Brazil this week. The GFS model is predicting parts of Mato Grosso could see 75mm to 200mm of rain over the next 7 days.

The weaker close in Chicago soybeans rolled through to a softer close in Winnipeg canola futures, but Paris rapeseed futures did manage to hold on much better. The Feb24 slot at Paris closed up E0.25 / tonne, not a huge jump but remaining flat to firmer in that market was a minor achievement. The move, or lack of a move, in Paris may not be enough to save local prices here, the AUD improved against the Euro a little.

In AUD terms world wheat values were mixed but generally a little lower when converting to a comparable price ex farm LPP. The move in US futures was not reflected in world wheat cash values 100%. Futures closing roughly AUD$8.93 lower while most cash values for H2 type wheat were roughly $1.00 to $4.00 lower in AUD terms. The weaker AUD against the USD helped.
2024 may well be decided by the value of the AUD. Some now calling the AUD a proxy for the crashing Chinese economy. That’s a big call, on both accounts, is the AUD a proxy and is the Chinese economy in as bad a shape as the media would like you to believe. Locally there’s some major issues not being addressed, not unlike the same issues hurting Canada at present. One might think if the US and China catch a cold the AUD may get cancer.