With a USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report due out at the end of the week there’s a bit of speculation creeping into the market. The main interest seems to be in the USDA potentially reducing their estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop. Currently they have it penciled in at 156mt. Some surveys show that the trade guess ranges from as low as 148mt to 156mt, the average guess is closer to 152.3mt.
There should be enough of the Brazil bean crop in the bin now to get a good handle on the situation. Any adjustment lower to the 156mt estimate, combined with the lower estimates for rapeseed in Europe, should at least put a floor in the oilseed market.

US wheat futures found resistance, mostly technical but also from lower values across the general commodities and grains market. Paris milling wheat futures were not immune, prices there too falling. The May24 slot shed E3.00 per tonne. Outer months at Paris were also lower but the main pressure appeared to be on the nearby March and May contracts.
Paris rapeseed futures bucked the trend in grains, including Chicago soybean futures and Winnipeg canola. The nearby Paris rapeseed slot closed E5.00 higher. When taking moves in the AUD/Euro into account that’s roughly equivalent to a day to day increase of AUD$9.12 / tonne.

StatsCanada will publish their stab at new crop acreage on Monday. The punters expect to see a slight decrease year on year in wheat acres.

The days of speculation on whether Turkey will or won’t sell another 150kt of durum was put to rest last night with the official announcement being made. The 150kt consists of 80kg test weight, min 70% HVK and min 12.5% protein durum. French FOB durum values fell around AUD$7.00 on the news.