US wheat futures were lower. The Chinese cancellation announcements appeared to be the major influence but there was also technical selling in the wheat pit. Fundamentally the impact the Chinese cancellation of US and Australian wheat will have longer term on the market will depend on if they re-enter the market over the next few weeks for purchases to the same volume as their cancellations, not completely out of the question. The longer the Chinese stay out of the international wheat market the more bearish the situation is for wheat.
At this stage China appear to have played the game well, international values have fallen and their hedge, depending on when and how it was conducted, could have netted a healthy return. For a country that suffered up to 20mt of quality downgrades last wheat harvest they are indeed playing a game with the demand side of the market though. If for instance we were to see the dry in the US continue, the dry in Australia push into the sowing window, production issues in the EU continue or a sharp decline in Russian exports for some reason, they may well be looking at a sharply higher market in a short amount of time.
It’s just confirmation as to why the N.Hemisphere spring is called the silly season in the grain markets.

Private estimates for the 2024-25 Russian wheat crop continue to suggest a crop very much the same as this year, around 92mt. Ukraine production is predicted to be a few million tonnes lower and diminishing grower returns will most likely see smaller wheat crops in Canada and Australia in 2024.

Futures markets were generally lower for most grains. Chicago soybeans held on OK, shedding just 1.5c/bu in the May24 contract. The softer sentiment did roll across to the Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola contracts though, both shedding value. Paris slipped the most of the two, in AUD terms back about AUD$3.95, taking the overnight variation in the Euro / AUD into account.