27/3/24 Prices
Winnipeg canola futures and Paris rapeseed futures took a break from the trend higher of the last few days and pushed sharply lower last night. Taking the AUD / Euro move into account the fall in nearby Paris rapeseed futures is worth roughly -AUD$8.16 / tonne this morning. With the move in futures values very similar in the outer months as the nearby, the impact may also be felt in new crop canola values here today.
At Winnipeg the move, when converted to AUD per tonne and taking the change in the cross currency rate into account is even worse than the push lower at Paris, the move converting to roughly -AUD$11.96 per tonne lower.
The pressure may have simply been spillover selling from the fall in Chicago soybean futures. Last night’s session isn’t called technical Tuesday for nothing. Wheat, corn and soybeans at Chicago all succumb to technical selling. Wheat futures were lower at both Chicago and Paris. Weaker futures also leading cash values at the port lower. HRWW and Spring Wheat out of the Pacific Northwest were lower. HRW shedding roughly AUD$6.95 and SW AUD$6.34, white wheat values remained relatively unchanged at roughly US$220 FOB, still very competitive with similar grades FOB Western Australia.
Some of the adjustment in world futures markets is speculation about what the numbers will be in the US quarterly stocks report due out Thursday their time.
Wheat was generally a follower of the likes of corn and soybean. US stocks data is expected to be more bullish than bearish for wheat, but the punters are just following the trends now.
Continued drought in Morocco is devastating their current cereal crop. Wheat production is expected to be the worst since 1980, potentially struggling to reach 2.5mt (5.5mt last year). This should see strong imports of durum for Morocco again in 2024-25.
The EU confirmed they will introduce an import duty on Russian wheat at E95.00/t and durum at E148/t. No mention of if this is effective on secondary trade.