US wheat futures were hit pretty hard overnight. The AUD done nothing so we don’t have that as a buffer today. Yesterday saw a slight increase in old crop APW basis Chicago SRWW, but I can’t see local basis jumping to +60c this morning to cover the downside. I’ll keep my fingers crossed though.
The funds appear to be back in the Chicago and Paris futures markets as sellers, establishing a sizable short position in wheat. Combine this with harvest pressure and it will be hard to talk this market up in the short term.
Recent losses in US futures have rolled across to cheaper export values for US wheat. This was reflected in weekly US export inspections pushing towards the higher end of trade expectations. US sales were also good as US wheat is now competitive into the Asian market.

The weekly USDA crop progress report was out after the close of trading at Chicago. The corn condition rating fell 2pts to 72% G/E week on week, that’s not the end of the world for corn. With some hot days over and rain in the forecast it could see next weeks rating improve a smidge. The soybean condition rating was also back 2pts to 70%. This done nothing to stop a sharp decline in soybean futures at Chicago. The fall was reflected at Paris but not so in the Canadian market. ICE canola futures at Winnipeg although falling a few cents a tonne in CAD nearby it actually converts to a possible gain in AUD. Not so at Paris though, that converts to a plausible loss of AUD$15.64 nearby, taking FX moves into account day to day.
Back to the USDA crop progress report. Sorghum is now 80% sown. 54% of the Texas crop is in head. The weekly G/E rating improved 2pts to 58% G/E, the sorghum crop in Kansas is rated at 53% G/E, the same as last week.
US winter wheat is pegged at 27% harvested, Kansas is at 28% done. Storms may continue to be an issue for HRW harvest in Kansas this week but the days are expected to be hot, possibly allowing some good progress for those that miss a storm.