Russia’s Ag Ministry has confirmed that 14.4m ha of an expected total of 20mha of winter crop has been sown. This brings sowing up to the pace as this time last year. Looking at recent weather maps one almost has to raise a skeptical eyebrow to this statement. Rainfall, especially across the Volga Valley where a large percentage of Russian winter wheat is grown has seen much below average rainfall during the entire sowing window.
Over the last 7 days a lot of western Russia and Ukraine has seen better falls of rain, but the Volga Valley, towards the north, remained very dry. According to WorldAgWeather.com this could change over the next 7 days. GFS modelling is predicting 20-30mm of rain across much of the Volga Valley, heavier to the south, but still very timely for those that have sown dry there.

At Chicago the punters appear to have bought on the back of yesterdays decline. Wheat futures in all three major US grades closed higher. Combining the higher close with the weaker AUD should see any weakness in local values seen here yesterday countered today. Local basis to Chicago SRWW was sharply lower yesterday, this too is encouraging, possibly increasing the chance of local values tracking higher today on improved basis as well.
US winter wheat sowing is progressing well, just 2pts behind the 5 year average pace and currently estimated at 64% complete. Drier weather last week and over the next 7 days should see the US sowing pace move along unhindered.

French non EU member wheat exports continue to lag considerably year on year, back roughly 61% to just 4mt. EU member sales are also back 5.8% year on year. French wheat production was reduced due to a wet sowing and growing season in 2023-24. A problem again being played out in 2024. Much of northern and eastern France has seen 150% to 200% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days. The seven day forecast is wet for the N-NW but also for the SW.