4/11/24 Prices

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US futures were generally flat to lower, corn at Chicago closed a little higher, soybeans lower, and all three wheat grades shed some value. SRWW at Chicago shed about AUD$1.40 / tonne, the weaker AUD countering that by roughly AUD$0.92 / tonne. Paris milling wheat was lower, back €1.00 in both the nearby and March 2025 contracts.
World cash wheat values were generally flat to firmer once the move lower in the AUD is taken into consideration. Interesting to note that Chicago HRW futures were lower but cash FOB values out of the US Pacific Northwest for HRW were actually a little higher in AUD/t. White wheat cash values out of the PNW were higher by roughly AUD$1.62 / tonne once the day to day change in the AUD is considered.
Black Sea wheat values showed little change and French cash wheat values were a smidge higher. Both regions appear to have a desire to slow wheat exports a little.
Sorghum FOB US Gulf was up around AUD$3.50 per tonne once the weaker AUD is considered. C&F China values for sorghum were up a comparable amount but the May 2025 Dalian corn futures contract shed a little value day to day. In AUD per tonne, roughly AUD$0.83/t.

Rainfall has been good across the eastern half of the US hard red winter wheat belt over the last 36 hours with general falls of 20-30mm. NE Texas across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, Missouri and most of Iowa picked up good rain. The forecast for the weekend is for continued rain across Oklahoma and Missouri and much of Illinois. The system should move east producing heavy rain across Missouri and Illinois by early next week. Floods and droughts.
The GFS model predicts that rain will continue across much of the Russia winter wheat districts again next week.
With rain falling across dry parts of the US and Russia it may take a little steam out of the international wheat market in the short term.

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