7/2/25 Prices

US and European grain futures were higher overnight. US wheat futures were the clear winner, Chicago HRWW and SRWW futures both seeing double digit gains on the back fund short covering. Minneapolis wasn’t far behind though. Corn and soybeans at Chicago were more subdued, making small gains across nearby and outer month contracts. Paris corn and milling wheat futures moved higher, nearby milling wheat put on €3.00 / tonne by the close, the Dec 25 slot up €1.75 / tonne. London feed wheat futures also closed higher, the nearby up £3.10 and the Jan 26 slot up £1.85 / tonne.
Both Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola made significant gains, possibly enough to claw back some of yesterdays AUD$9.00 fall in local values. It’s interesting to see how close canola tracks the Paris futures market yet wheat will not track as closely to the US wheat futures market.
US cash wheat values out of the Pacific Northwest were stronger. Comparing yesterdays conversion to a value delivered Asian buyer and then converting that value back to an AUD port price, the same conversion today shows up that white wheat is up less than half a dollar per tonne, 11.5% hard red winter wheat is up AUD$9.23 / tonne, and spring wheat is up AUD$6.33 per tonne. French cash wheat values Rouen were also firmer, up AUD$7.69 / tonne for 11.5% wheat using a similar consumer location conversion. Black Sea wheat values saw Russian wheat higher by less than AUD$2.00 and Ukraine lower by a similar value.
Mexico has officially said they will not ban US GMO corn imports. Granted it was never likely, but if implemented it would have reduced US exports to Mexico significantly. Argentine weekly soybean and corn crop condition ratings slipped again this week as hot, dry weather persists. A quick look at world ag weather.com tends to suggest some parts did see some decent rain over the last 7 days but constantly high temperatures are making short work of any rainfall. China has delayed or redirected up to 600kt of wheat orders, mostly from Australia, not ideal.