Another cold snap is forecast for the US over the next few days. Overnight minimums crept as low as -30C in Minnesota. Across the hard red winter wheat belt temperatures were as low as -17C in parts of north central Kansas. Unlike the last freeze this time around much of the winter wheat country as far south as Oklahoma has some degree of snow cover to protect young dormant wheat crops. There are a few small pockets with little cover, but generally this freeze event does not pose the level of risk as the prior event. Temperatures in northern Kansas will become brutal though, possibly slipping as low as -25C before the middle of next week. Something those living in Minnesota, N.Dakota or Montana could only wish for.

US wheat futures found limited support, HRWW futures found a little more support from the weather forecast but both SRWW and SW were generally a couple of cents per bushel higher. Out of the US Pacific Northwest values tracked the US futures market higher. Compared to yesterdays conversion HRWW gained roughly AUD$3.13 / tonne while spring wheat was more subdued gaining roughly AUD$0.15/t, the weaker USD against the AUD not helping much at all.
The AUD was weaker against the Euro, helping to buffer some of the move lower in Paris milling wheat futures which slid €1.00 / tonne nearby and €0.75/t in the December slot. Paris rapeseed was sideways, closing in the green by just €0.75 nearby and flat in the Feb 26 slot.

Algeria was said to have picked up 330kt of Black Sea wheat at US$262 – US$263 CIF from Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine. The tonnage is a little lower than initial estimates of 550kt – 600kt. On the back of an envelope this is roughly equivalent to about AUD$270 XF LPP, confirming that Aussie wheat is not competitive into the N.African market, and nor should it be. Is does tend to indicate that the FOB B/S value sold at would work into SE Asia at a price something close to the equivalent XF LPP value of AUD$380/ tonne. Aussie white wheat will often exceed a premium of AUD$25 to red wheat to millers.