US wheat futures seem to be happy to trade around current values +/-. The combination of a slightly firmer AUD and lower futures may weigh a little on local track values here today, but the firmer AUD may also help to claw back some of the recent basis losses to Chicago. Yesterday saw basis improve from -14c to -6c/bu, but one does not get excited about negative basis does one.
The underlying issue when trying to establish a rally, or break through resistance in futures is the large global wheat stocks number. As long as the global stocks to use ratio has a 3 as the first number the push to 700c/bu futures in the US will be a hard slog. With China reducing wheat imports it does tend to lend support to their claimed stock level too. With China processing around 50% of all world wheat ending stocks, 130.6mt of the current USDA 257.56mt projection. The chance of a demand driven rally is probably a little remote. Thus the world futures markets remain focused on the major exporters and the impact recent cold dry weather in Russia and the USA will have on the new crop coming out of the thaw in March / April.
For those producers holding old crop track wheat in hope of better values, the volatility often shows up in futures and cash markets during the northern hemisphere spring. The next price driver after the northern hemisphere thaw is often domestic and evolves around domestic production, sowing or lack of it. The next USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report is due out on the 11th of March, then April 10th.

Chicago soybeans found some support from a lower than expected production estimate for Brazilian soybeans. Either way you look at it 171.3mt is not a small pile of soybeans though, be it lower than Agroconsults last prediction of 172.4mt or not. Argentina will be the next cab of the rank for beans. Crop condition there improved slightly but it’s still not great with just 17% of the crop there rated Good / Excellent. The move in beans supported Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures, palm oil futures also made some nice moves higher.