World grain futures markets are a sea of red this morning. London feed wheat, Paris milling wheat, all three US wheat grades, Chicago corn and soybeans, Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola are all lower. The biggest losers appear to be Winnipeg canola and Paris rapeseed. Although lower nearby, palm oil futures were not lower from July > Jan26.
Weaker futures rolled across to weaker cash values for most of the major exporters. US values for wheat out of the Pacific Northwest were down by AUD$4.00 to AUD$7.00 / tonne compared to Fridays conversion. Russian and Argie FOB wheat was up a little from Friday. Russian values +AUD$3.80 / tonne, roughly the same value as what Ukraine wheat was lower. Argie wheat was about a dollar higher. Even US white wheat values out of the PNW were lower compared to Fridays conversions.
International barley values were also caught up in the sell off. Most FOB and C&F values slipped away, not as sharply as wheat, but the average decline is roughly AUD$1.56 / tonne. BAR1 C&F China values, when compared to Friday’s numbers, converted to an XFLPP value, were roughly flat to AUD$2.00 lower. Even with international values lower the C&F price still indicates that local bids of just $265 ex farm still make local grain available to the export market, but both international and local demand remain poor off the LPP. Current bids leave enough fat in the price to make the export process potentially profitable.

Uncertainty over US tariffs and the expectation of a bigger corn area in the US had the punters on the defensive. Corn futures fell a little further than US up country values, corn basis improving by 2c/bu at some processors. International demand for corn remains good. The saying that the “Bulls need feeding everyday” rang true for wheat. The perceived risk of winter kill in Russia and the US is now a memory or a reality the punters are comfortable with for the time being. Russian wheat is probably at more risk of dry weather than winter kill and the agro’s are still to confirm what percentage of the US crop was hurt.