US wheat futures found spillover pressure from corn and soybeans as well as political pressure as the implementation date for US tariffs against Canada and Mexico near.
The row crops were also pressured by progress in the South American soybean harvest, and sowing progress in the second corn crop in Brazil.
A quick look at WorldAgWeather.com shows plenty of rain fell across the major production zones of Brazil last week, 50mm – 70mm in many locations. This may start to do more damage to soybeans left in the field, and could also disrupt further sowing of second crop corn. The second crop corn sowing window for Brazil is closing, most locations take the last week of February as the end of the optimum sowing window.
I don’t know if these fundamental concerns are enough to turn the flow of fund liquidation in US futures at present, but it may start to influence world cash values as opposed to US futures values in time. The forecast for Brazil is basically for more of the same over the next week but the heavier falls are going to stay a little further north than the major production regions. Mato Grosso is expected to see between 20mm to 50mm though, making wet soil wetter.

The forecast for the USA is showing good rainfall is likely east of the Mississippi. Much of the US Midwest has been dry and west of the Mississippi is expected to stay that way. This includes much of the hard red winter wheat belt. Kansas is hanging out for a good fall of rain going into the spring. The last 30 days for the main wheat producing state in the US has been dry, with many locations seeing less than 10mm of rain. The next week may see some relief for the higher producing eastern edge of Kansas, but much of central and western Kansas is not expected to see rain from this change. Not good news as temperatures start to climb back into the high teens and low 20s.
Much of Russia and Ukraine remain unusually dry. The opposite can be said for the spring wheat regions of Kazakhstan. Dryness in Turkey persists.