There’s much more green on the screen this morning. Chicago HRWW and MGEX spring wheat futures made good gains, SRWW futures at Chicago lagged a little but managed to put on 8.5c/bu in the May slot, roughly AUD$4.97 / tonne. Throw a weaker AUD into the mix, and the potential for some upside (or basis erosion for the more skeptical of us) is plausible today.
We maybe seeing a little money getting parked in the ag products. The Dow fell 436pts last night, the S&P is back 10% off its high, and 1.42% lower overnight. US wheat export sales were the main fundamental catalyst for the rally according to some wires. Weekly US wheat sales exceeded the 4 week average, and at 31.8 million bushels (866kt) were well above all trade estimates prior to the reports release. 2024-25 US marketing year wheat sales continue to trend above last years pace and are currently at 21.1mt. The USDA annual projection is 22.73mt. The US marketing year finishes on May 31st, leaving a weekly average sales volume of just 135kt/wk, something the US should find achievable unless politics intervene.
It does raise the question of why did the USDA reduce projected US wheat export sales by 400kt in the March WASDE.

Algeria was said to have picked up 450kt of milling wheat in their most recent tender according to the trade. Algeria do not make their tender results public. The price was estimated to be US$268.50 C&F. On the back of an envelope this is roughly comparable to something close to AUD$280 XF LPP, so obviously not Australian in origin. The trade expect to see Black Sea wheat fill the tender. With Russian milling wheat currently estimated to be worth about US$238 FOB, this does leave enough in the tank for margin, freight and insurance at US$268.50 C&F.

EU wheat production is set to rebound from a poor 125.1mt in 2024, to 137.2mt in 2025. Although back from the Dec estimate it will allow for increased exports.