The US dollar fell sharply on Friday after Trump again threatened to place steep tariffs on European imports to America. Trump floated the idea of a 50% tariff on EU goods as he remains unhappy with the current pace of negotiations with the EU. The move lower in the US dollar has re-ignited inflation fears for US consumers, at this stage this has not resulted in flow of hedge money into commodities as an inflation hedge. If the US dollar was to continue to weaken one might expect to see this happen. Or are the funds treating this as a “boy who cried wolf” this time around.
The fall in the US dollar saw the day to day conversion comparison for white wheat and hard red winter wheat out of the US Pacific Northwest fall roughly AUD$5.50 compared to yesterday. Spring wheat values out of the PNW followed MGEX spring wheat futures higher but the day to day conversion comparison still shows a decline on AUD/tonne of roughly AUD$1.50 / tonne.
Strength in the US and Canadian spring wheat market came from possible planting delays across N.Dakota and Minnesota. 7 day rainfall totals for much of the US spring wheat belt are now above 40mm, with many locations in N.Dakota seeing in excess of 60mm over the last week. The 7 day forecast does show conditions in both N.Dakota and Minnesota clearing a little, but conditions will remain wet across S.Dakota and much of the central Midwest next week.

The Volga Valley and the Russian and Kazakhstan spring wheat region has seen good rain this week, potentially too much in some locations but generally good for filling wheat and summer crop establishment. Ukraine also saw useful falls. Further west, northern France and much of Germany continue to see much lower than average rainfall. The dry weather now encroaching on the UK and much of southern Scandinavia. The forecast for France remains dry for the week ahead, but West Germany should see some useful falls, as will the Black Sea states of Romania and Bulgaria.
Keep an eye on the crop condition rating for French wheat next week. I fall in the G/E rating may help stop the current decline in Paris milling wheat futures.