The deterioration in condition of the US wheat crop in last Tuesdays crop progress report is well and truly behind the market now. With the harvest pace picking up it’s all about buy low, sell high, and it’s buying time.
Another crop progress report came out after the close last night. Kansas moved from 53% harvested last week to 82% complete this week, 5pts above the 5 year average pace. Texas and Oklahoma are still seeing some delays, Texas at 83% harvested versus the 5 year average of 92% and Oklahoma at 83% vs 96%. Texas has seen some wild weather, the flash flooding in the SW taking the lives of many over the weekend.
It appears producers have been able to work around showers across Kansas. According to WorldAgWeather Kansas saw falls of 10-50mm over the last 7 days across much of the state. Last week the condition of the Kansas HRWW crop was rated at 48% G/E. With 82% of the crop now in the bin the condition rating is becoming less important and did remain at 48% this week.
Spring wheat saw a rating of 50% this week compared to 53% last week. The N.Dakota crop was rated at 68% G/E back 1pt on last week. Roughly 60% of the ND spring wheat crop is now in head, 8pts above the five year average thanks to a timely sowing this year.
Hot weather will generally stay south of Nebraska for the week ahead. The spring wheat belt and corn belt in the US has seen little extreme dry or heat stress across spring sown acres this season. Apart from some parts NE Montana and north central N.Dakota, located closer to the durum belt of the Canadian Prairies it’s been pretty good. Southern Saskatchewan did see a few showers over the weekend, too little too late for some, but it should be enough to stop any further decline in condition if nothing else. The average price for 1CWAD13 across SE Sask fell CAD$6.31/t for a December lift. The first move lower of this magnitude for some time. Outside markets were mostly lower, weighing on most grains. Canola values across SE Saskatchewan were significantly lower, back CAD$22.69/t for a Dec26 lift. The price spread between old crop prompt and new crop Dec pickup is now very little.