Rain across southern Italy has damaged durum fields across Sicily and Apulia. Harvest was just getting going in the far south, this rain has come at a very bad time. The heaviest falls laid durum crops flat. The forecast is for showers to clear, allowing those who can harvest to start again. There’s currently not a lot of talk of quality issues, but we’ll know more in a week or so, once testing begins.
Global durum production is expected to decline in 2025-26, back to levels closer to 2021-22production. This should see prices sustained at levels at least on par to last season if not a little better. In 2021 we saw local DR1 top out at $700 NTP NTL. Not sure if that will happen again this year, there was a lot of other things happening in 2020-21. The key to durum values in the mid to long term will continue to be the size of the Canadian crop which is generally finished being sown by early June. Conditions across the Canadian durum belt are mixed, but not too bad generally speaking. Rainfall has been better towards the south where durum is more popular and too much has fallen across N.Dakota, the largest US durum producing state. Over the last 7 – 14 days 70-120mm has fallen across western ND. The 7 day forecast calls for more light showers across both SE Saskatchewan and N.Dakota.
Rainfall has also been good across the major durum regions of Russia and Kazakhstan. Conditions remain mostly dry for the Turkish harvest.

The heavy rain across N.Dakota is likely to result in delays to both spring and durum wheat sowing there. This may be reflected in a decline to the sowing pace in next weeks USDA crop progress report on Tuesday. Further rain is also predicted for much of the HRWW belt with Kansas expected to see 25-50mm over the weekend. This may help with grain fill for the later crops, but a dry spring saw many fields in Kansas move to head quickly. Prolonged wet weather may also see some disease issues arise.
The good season unfolding in the Russian spring wheat region is also seeing a few punters increase Russian production, but estimates remain below 2024.