The US markets were closed overnight. This leaves Paris milling wheat and London feed wheat futures as the next best futures markets to look at. Paris milling wheat saw a €1.00 gain nearby while the Dec slot closed €0.75 / tonne higher. London feed wheat futures were unchanged in both the July and November slots and up just £0.05/tonne in the Jan 26 slot.
Rapeseed futures were the big winner, the Feb 26 contract closing €6.50/tonne higher at €508.00. Winnipeg was also higher, gaining CAD$7.00/t in the Jan 26 slot. Cash canola values across SE Saskatchewan were not as enthusiastic. PDQ reporting a CAD$7.18 / tonne fall in the average ex farm value for a July lift and a CAD$0.71/tonne fall for a Dec25 lift. This may leave buyers a little perplexed here today, but we have been tracking much more closely to the Paris futures market than the Canadian cash or futures market. So there is potential for some upside to close the week.

There was a report yesterday suggesting drought conditions across some parts of the Russian southern winter wheat region of Rostov. The “drought” doesn’t encompass the whole region. Quantifying losses will be difficult too. The spring was less than ideal in this region, crops were never going to be great but the spring may have pushed crops to maturity quicker than average as well, thus not having to persist through a dry spell for as long as they may have otherwise. A quick look at Worldagweather.com also indicates that rainfall in that area, although below average, is still not as scant as across much of France. I can’t help but think that we could see France do some adjusting to production of winter and spring crops over the next few weeks.

The forecast for the Canadian Prairies continues to evolve. Alberta is expected to see the best falls across all the major farming areas. Some models calling for 80-100mm along the eastern foothills and towards the Montana border. Southern Saskatchewan may see showers but nothing that heavy.