The USDA crop progress report was out after the close last night. 95% of the corn crop is in dough stage, 74% dented and 25% is rated as mature. US corn harvest pace is in line with the 5 year average at 4% and is just getting under way in the big producing states. The G/E rating for US corn fell 1pt from 50/19 = 69% to 49/19 = 68% in last night’s report.
97% of the US soybean crop is setting pods, 21% dropping leaves and is rated at 50/14-64% G/E a fall of 1pt from last week.
Texas is 19% through cotton picking. Cotton crop condition rating increased 3pts from 43/8-51% G/E last week to 46/8-54% this week.
97% of the US sorghum crop is in head, 23% of the Kansas crop is rated as mature and harvest is pegged at 20% complete. Texas makes up the lions share of harvest progress at 73% off, versus Kansas at just 2% harvested. The G/E rating for US sorghum went from 48/16-64% last week to 47/18-65% this week.
US spring wheat harvest progressed to 85% complete, N.Dakota catching up to the 5 year average and is now 78% complete.
The North Dakota wheat commission will release their weekly update this week. Good harvest progress in the both US spring and durum wheat is expected.

Showers continued across much of the already soaked wheat belt of Argentina last week. 20-50mm falling across Santa Fe and BA. The forecast there calls for showers to lighten and contract to the east but the continued wet weather have a few punters questioning crop quality in Argentina this year. The crop window there is very similar to Australia, if anything maybe a few weeks later. Thus the recent rain, although creating issues for those on low lying or flood prone country, is probably more help than harm for the winter crop at present. The crop crop here is generally throwing a flag leaf up or a head in the earlier fields, rain now can increase the risk of some diseases but generally is better known for consolidating yields. Rain in late September / October has been known to create black tip in tighter heads and we all know what late October / November rain does.

here was a little basis erosion to Chicago futures yesterday +47c to +43c. With a rally in Chicago SRWW last night and not a lot changing from a domestic or international level fundamentally I can’t see all of this rally being reflected in local cash prices today. This we are probably more likely to see some further basis erosion today. The increase in the value of the AUD is worth -3c/bu, so there’s a good chance we’ll see some basis erosion of at least that value, potentially more. I’ll call the local new crop APW bid flat for today.
Old crop wheat, SFW1, went through at $300 XF SW LPP late last week. The bids into the local consumer market for SFW1 were generally flat to softer yesterday but there was nothing more on the offer side to test this market.
New crop ASW was bid steady at $300 delivered Tanagratta. Last year we saw the local feed market also bidding minimum quality ASW leading into harvest. This doesn’t offer the producer much of an off grade hedge and should probably be viewed as a poor choice for forward contracting, especially given the current long term weather outlook. Most models predict a wet spring / summer, enhancing the chance of feed grade wheat off the LPP. Currently there are no firm bidders of FED1 wheat, true feed wheat. ASW has a minimum test weight of 76kg/hltr, GP 68kg, SFW1 70kg and FED1 62kg. Selling ASW is basically the same as sell low protein milling wheat, it offers little in the form of an off grade hedge.