When it comes to wheat there’s not a lot of green on the screen this morning. US futures were lower, the higher grades taking the bigger hit, but nothing has really fallen out of bed. The move lower in US milling wheat futures was reflected in cash values out of the Pacific Northwest.
US white wheat destined for the Asian market is flat, but the stronger AUD has resulted in the day to day conversion comparison falling AUD$1.27/t. PNW FOB milling wheat conversions were generally back between AUD$1.50/t and AUD$2.50/t for HRWW / DNS and Canadian CWRS milling wheat.
The AUD was the main factor in showing weaker day to day conversions for both French and Black Sea values. Cash indicators for Russian, Ukraine and French wheat were generally pretty flat. But we do see a slight drop in the conversions due to the stronger AUD. Paris milling wheat futures were higher by less than a dollar in the May slot.
Argentine cash milling wheat saw the sharpest decline of the major exporters last night. FOB up river values were sharply lower. The day to day conversion comparison falling by as much as AUD$10.62/t. On the back of an envelope, the calculation makes Argie milling wheat worth about US$263 into the Asian market. This compares to something like AUD$270 for the Aussie product. Tariffs may play a roll in the final comparison depending on the destination. As a bench mark US HRWW is probably closer to US$256 – US$260 delivered Asian consumer.

US weekly wheat export sales ending Jan 8th were terrible, just 156kt. No one was expecting a huge number this time of year. The lowest estimate leading into the report was just 100kt. To keep the pace as strong as it is, +16% on last year, sales will need to improve from here on though. Corn and soybean sales volume was much better. Corn 1.14mt, towards the middle to higher range of estimates. Soybeans were good, 2.062mt, well above the pre report trade estimate high of 1.8mt. Corn sales are running at +29% YoY, soybean volume continues to struggle, now 25% lower year on year, at 30.638mt.