EU markets were firmer, US markets were mixed. London feed wheat, Paris milling wheat, Paris corn, Paris rapeseed, were all firmer bar a couple of slots. Paris milling wheat gained €3.25/t in the December slot. This takes Paris Dec milling wheat to €231.75/t (US$267.75/t). The Dec slot for Chicago HRWW closed the session at 731c/bu, US$268.59/t.
Looking at US and French milling wheat on a cash delivered Asian consumer basis has US HRWW roughly US$11.00 cheaper than French wheat, and so it should be. Interestingly we now see Aussie east coast H2 and US HR milling wheat into the same Asian consumer market at roughly par to each other. Improvements in NNSW basis is narrowing that spread, but it still has a ways to go to see a more tradition spread appear.
The main supporting factor for global wheat values are unchanged. The Black Sea execution problems the foremost issue. The low river height for the Danube is also a problem for some facilities. Ukraine has dramatically increased rail volume to Constanta, Romania, to execute exports. Russian export volume for July was the worst it’s been since the 2017-18 season. Without a fix soon we may see Russian ending stocks climb in multiples of millions of tonnes over the coming months.

The next USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report is due out on the 12th US time, so here this time next week. The punters are squaring up in a few slots, but the consensus, (how I hate that word), is for the USDA to increase corn area and possibly reduce yields a smidge. This may see corn values remain flat to bearish. The dark horse will be US usage, some are talking this number lower. The impact on US sorghum values could be softer, this also sounds like a fair assumption given the US sorghum harvest is just about to crank up.
For the USDA report to have an impact on this market, USDA Vs Black Sea, it will need to have some surprising data.