A quick look at wheat in last night USDA World Ag Supply and Demand report should be enough to send you to sleep. It’s not bad news at least.
World ending stocks were lowered, down 740kt from 278.25mt in January to 277.51mt. This was generally determined by a reduction in both opening stocks, -230kt and a reduction in production of -370kt. World wheat production is still very large at 841.8mt.
Looking at what changed we see the bulk of the reduction of ending stocks in from the major exporters, good news. Argentina being the main contributor to this with a reduction of -1.7mt, from 6.01mt carry out to 4.31mt. Argie production was increased by 300kt to 27.8mt. Significantly larger that their effort in 2024-25 of 15.85mt, and does ram home the reason they are so aggressive on the export market this year. Aggressive enough that the USDA have increased their projected exports from 16mt to 18mt.
Aussie data was left generally unchanged, a 30kt increase in opening stocks rolled through to a 30kt increase in ending stocks, I mean, why bother. Aussie domestic consumption was left at 9.1mt and exports at 27mt. If it stays dry that domestic consumption number will start to increase.
Canadian data was tweaked, domestic consumption was reduced, and exports increased by 2mt, net result -430kt to their carry out. Not 100% convinced this will happen but durum exports do appear to be running ahead of estimates.
Projected US exports were left unchanged at 24.49mt, domestic consumption was reduced a smidge, net result carry out was +130kt. US wheat export shipments currently stand at 17.327mt. The US wheat marketing year starts on June 1st and closes on May 31st. So for the 249 days completed they have averaged 69.77kt per day. Pretty close to the 67.09kt per day they need to achieve the current projection.
Russian data was left unchanged. There was plenty of chatter leading into this report that Russian ending stocks may be increased due to the slower than expected pace of exports. Maybe they are saving that one up for the March report. Conclusion……. world wheat remains on life support for the next 30 days.