The screen has a lot of green on it this morning. US wheat, corn and soybeans at Chicago are all higher. There are gains in EU milling wheat and London feed wheat. Paris corn futures were either side of unchanged, and Paris rapeseed closed up €4.00 in the February slot.
The double digit gains at Chicago are encouraging, that’s two days in a row now. Local basis for new crop wheat here did erode a little yesterday, as expected. If basis is sustained at yesterdays level today, we should see some upside, currency may also help flat price.
Canada had a day off for Canada Day, cash bids were available in some locations across the Canadian Prairies. Spring wheat values out of SE Saskatchewan followed the US market higher.
Cash values out of the US Pacific Northwest were higher for white wheat, spring wheat and hard red winter wheat. International cash values were mixed, a function of delayed reporting and lower cash FOB values resulting in the average international cash wheat price improving by a lesser margin than US futures. The AUD is helping this comparison. FOB values out of Russia were lower for milling wheat. Russian milling wheat now roughly US$5.00 cheaper than US wheat into the Asian market. This did tend to trigger selling in the past.
Feed barley XF Peace River Canada was flat. FOB France values were a little firmer while FOB Russia, Black Sea, values were lower by more than AUD$15.00/t compared to yesterday. Bid / offer spreads on international cash grain can draw average cash values down on a day to day basis, but the trend is currently lower for Russian barley and wheat at the FOB level. Conversion of C&F China values still confirms that locally we should be able to sustain values close to AUD$280 – AUD$290 XF LPP, or higher if the trade / consumer wants to keep NNSW barley away from the export market. Current XF LPP values are around AUD$300-$310 for N/D/J pickup. Is this a large enough premium, probably, but it will depend on slot availability at harvest. I can see those that miss a harvest slot and are forced into the system having to meet export parity values or storing into Q1-2 2027 to achieve a better Delivered or FOT price.