8/7/26 Prices

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The news is that China has bought at least five cargoes of US soybeans, around 300kt for Sept / Nov delivery. There’s been no official confirmation of the deal, and there is also trade speculation that the sale could have been as large as 600kt. The news pushed Chicago soybean futures sharply higher on Monday but the rally was not as strong yesterday. US soybeans closed up 9.75c/bu in the August slot after rallying over 40c/bu in the previous session.
The news had the usual knock on affect to both Paris rapeseed futures and Winnipeg canola futures. The lack of a correction in soybeans last night helped both the rapeseed and canola market to continue to rally. Paris rapeseed futures closed +2.25/t in the Feb 27 slot. While Winnipeg canola futures managed to close +CAD$4.60/t in the Jan 27 slot. Combine these moves with a slightly weaker AUD this morning, and there’s a good chance we will see local new crop values push higher again today.
Chicago wheat futures were higher, as were Minneapolis and Paris milling wheat futures. US and Canadian cash values out of the Pacific Northwest moved higher in unison with the futures markets. Cash bids ex farm SE Saskatchewan were firmer. 1CWRS13.5 wheat was on average bid at CAD$270.99/t ex farm for a December lift. Converting the Canadian value to a C&F Asian consumer number basically gives the same result as converting US spring wheat out of the Pacific NW to C&F Asia, roughly US$292-94. About US$7.00 under Australian H2 grower bids converted to C&F Asian consumer.

Poor weather in France is resulting in firmer corn values in Ukraine. FOB values Odessa improved roughly US$3.00/t yesterday. Most other grains, including wheat and rapeseed, were generally lower FOB Black Sea. French corn condition continues to decline.
Turkey has introduced a zero tolerance on imported durum and milling wheat that contains certain types of karnal bunt or smut, (tilletia). These pathogens have been detected across north America and most Asian countries, but are basically absent from Australian and some European countries.

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