21/7/26 Prices
Chicago wheat futures found little support. Lackluster US export loadings didn’t help. At 214kt for the week it was well below last weeks volume, and also below the volume for the same time last year. It was also towards the bottom of the range of values the trade had expected to see prior to the release of the report.
Corn export loadings were better, at 1.55mt it came in towards the higher end of expectations, and is about the same volume as last week, keeping the current export pace roughly +25% above the same point in the previous marketing year.
This weeks USDA weekly crop progress report held both disappointment and surprises. The US corn crop is now 59% silked, just ahead of this time last year. Iowa is 72% silked. The important thing to point out here is that this has occurred during a heat wave. The punters had expected to see a sharper decline in the corn condition rating. The portion of the corn crop rated good / excellent fell by by just one point to 67%. Although corn futures at Chicago did close in the green, a sharper decline in the G/E rating may have seen a larger gain.
The US sorghum crops was rated at 35/10 = 45% G/E, this compares to 34/11=45% G/E last week. The percentage of their sorghum crop rated very poor / poor increased from 15% last week to 17% this week. About 16% of the US sorghum crop is now colouring up. 19% of the Kansas crop is in head.
74% of the US winter wheat crop is harvested. The most northern crops are yet to come. 86% of the US spring wheat crop is now in head. The condition rating of the spring wheat was probably the biggest surprise in this weeks crop progress report. It fell from 58% G/E last week to 53% G/E this week. The trade had been expecting a slight decline, but not this much. The last couple of weeks of weather across the Dakotas and eastern Montana, as well as southern Saskatchewan and Alberta, has been very hot and dry. Not exactly ideal grain filling weather. Possibly more adjustments to come for spring wheat.