We have a USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report due out tomorrow night, US Sept 11th. This will probably result in speculative liquidation and positioning leading up to the report.
Wheat has seen a significant amount of volatility over the last couple of weeks as the punters bought futures on the back of an expected increase in US wheat orders to fill the gap left by defaults from the Black Sea region. Weekly USDA export inspections and sales data tends to show that there has been no sudden increase. International wheat demand has withdrawn a little if anything, as prices increased. S.Arabia actually cancelled a tender.
The funds had built a record long in US grain futures. With out confirmation that the market can sustain these values through increased sales, this long position is vulnerable to a correction or three.
The average trade guestimates leading up to Fridays WASDE see a reduction in US production of both corn and soybeans. Anything contrary to this may be the trigger the punters need to start a round of profit taking.
Technically the gaps left in the Dec HRWW chart on the way up have now been filled. The contract is still sitting near a long term high, values not seen since July 2023.
Cash wheat values out of the US Pacific Northwest fell away, following the futures market down. The day to day conversion comparison for 11.5% HRWW shows a decline of AUD$8.21/t. Comparing H2 grower bids here on a C&F Asian consumer basis to US HRWW indicates that the US product remains about US$12.57/t. higher. That premium was halved overnight, unless we see a reduction in the local bids here today.
Russian feed barley values were mixed, but generally higher. International feed barley values remain mixed. If we take away the volatility being created by the EU and the Black Sea, and concentrate on Canadian values into China we see little change, both Aussie and Canadian barley are on par C&F China.