There’s a World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report to have a look at this morning. I’ll concentrate on wheat.
From the macro level the report isn’t as bullish wheat as what the 20c+/bu rally at Chicago might suggest. World opening stocks were increased 1.18mt, production was decreased 670kt, domestic usage was increased, fair enough too given the dry in Europe, exports were cut 340kt, that could have been a lot higher due to Black Sea issues. The net result is a 410kt increase to ending stocks. That last part is definitely not bullish.
Even if you only look at US data, a 150kt decrease in ending stocks isn’t really worth 20c/bu, granted that all came from a decrease in production, but that still isn’t much of a reduction on the July estimates.
Looking at the bundle for the major world exporters the only number that decreased is the export volume, that’s not exactly bullish either. The net change to major world exporters ending stocks was +3.05mt, to 42.08mt. That increase is all Black Sea tonnage though, +1.5mt in ending stocks for Russia and +2.27mt ending stocks for Ukraine. A 400kt increase in Canadian ending stocks was countered by a 500kt decrease in Aussie ending stocks. Argie ending stocks were also down 320kt. I find the 1mt increase in Canadian production a little questionable, Australia a 28mt is probably close, western and southern region in Australia should be able to counter the smaller crops in NNSW and QLD, now they’ve seen some good rain.
Another questionable number is the EU, an increase of 2.5mt for opening stock countered a 1.8mt decrease in production. EU domestic consumption was increased. I think that number is too low given the potential feed demand from the hot, dry summer. The net change for the EU was a measly 300kt decrease to ending stocks.
The demand side was boring, a 296kt decrease in major importers ending stocks, but a 1.8mt decrease in imports. The only real ray of longer term light on the demand side, which sides well for Australia, is the 840kt decrease in SE Asian ending stocks, bought about by lower imports and higher consumption.