US wheat futures were down a smidge after a sharply higher session the day before. To hold the majority of the previous sessions gains was probably a good result considering the lack of bullish data for wheat in the WASDE report.
The majority of the strength was attributed to the Ukrainian attacks on Russian port infrastructure at Novorossiysk. This port handles a lot of wheat from the Volga Valley, the heart of the black soil country north of the Black Sea. Since the Kerch Straight and access to the Azov Sea had been compromised, expectations were that this port may, to some degree, pick up some of the tonnage that would have normally moved out of the Azov Sea into the Black Sea. Now we have three major export facility at Novorossiysk closed, one of which handles around 7mtpa, not a small port.
According to some reports damage to some facilities is minimal. This should allow loading to commence in a reasonable time frame, but there are also reports of some serious damage to the larger facility that may take more time to repair. The location of that facility, next to a naval base, appears somewhat unfortunate at present. Looking at damage locations it’s not clear if Ukraine drones targeted grain export facilities or if the facilities were simply collateral damage when military and oil export infrastructure was targeted.
The early part of the session at Chicago was generally bullish on the back of this news. The Dec SRWW contract as high as 681.25c/bu at one stage, a gain of 11.5c/bu on the previous close. Then news of a Ukraine offer to halt attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea hit the market, turning values sharply lower quickly, eroding all of the mornings gains. Big call, and probably one Russia will scoff at considering the damage done in the last couple of weeks.

US weekly grain export sales data showed corn, wheat and soybeans within trade estimates leading up to the report, no fuel there. CONAB see’s Brazil production estimates for corn higher month on month, but export projections for both Brazilian corn and soybeans were left unchanged.