Corn futures at Chicago continued to push higher. The trade continue to point out just how tight the world corn stocks to use ratio is becoming. Supply has not kept up with demand over the last couple of years and the drought in Europe is reducing the global stocks to use ratio to a percentage we’ve not seen since the 2012 drought in the USA. Here in Australia that will potentially keep new crop sorghum values firm, not that we’ve seen much buying interest from the sorghum export guys as yet, but it does pave the way for sorghum into this summer if we can get a crop in the ground.

US wheat futures were flat to lower, not handing back all the good gains made on Friday, but not improving on them either. Paris milling wheat futures were lower, shedding €1.75/t in the Dec slot. The funds appear to be well in control of the wheat pits at both Paris and Chicago at present.
The saying “the bulls need feeding every day”, is potentially ringing true for wheat at present. There has been no change since Russia rejected Ukraine’s request of a cease fire. There has been no change in the conflict, thus no new news, so not necessarily bullish news according the caffeine fuelled futures punters. On the ground the stark reality is that currently 90% of Russian Black Sea wheat export capability is closed or damaged. Russian grain analyst SovEcon forecast that August wheat exports could fall as low as 2.2mt, the lowest since 2010 when drought ravaged the steppes, and Russia withdraw from wheat exports to ensure domestic supply. Today is a stark difference. With Russian production almost 90mt versus 45mt in 2010, all export delays are doing now are building Russian wheat stocks. If Russia was to sow a similar acreage to this year to wheat, this would pose a very real problem for new crop world wheat values in Q4 2026 and into next year, if they can export.
The easiest solution is to see Russian and Ukraine exports recommence as soon as possible. Lower prices short term may be a better pill to swallow than a golf ball sized laxative in the middle of next year. The longer this goes on the more the producer should look at selling the spike in the short term.