19/8/26 Prices
Some technical weakness in the US wheat futures market, HRWW and SRWW, as we near the first notice day for the September contract. Volume in the SRWW Sept slot was not bad for this time of the month. Dec is the major month now though. The move may appear counterintuitive to the changes in the USDA crop progress report. Spring wheat condition improved a little, while spring wheat futures also improved.
Cash values for US wheat out of the Pacific Northwest were mixed. Hard red winter wheat @ 11.5% protein was down from yesterdays conversion by roughly AUD$5.59/t. Spring wheat from both Canada and the USA out of the PNW were both higher compared to yesterdays conversion, US DNS up AUD$1.07/t and Canadian spring wheat up roughly AUD$2.41 / tonne. White wheat values were flat to +AUD$1.00/t.
There has been no significant changes to the Black Sea situation.
US summer crop tour results are coming in with yield estimates below USDA expectations for both soybeans and corn across the eastern and central corn belt. Corn yields may come in significantly lower in some locations. This should continue to add strength to the US corn futures market, or at least underpin the current values in the short to mid term. Harvest pressure may cap volatility, but the fundamentals remain supportive.
CME (Chicago futures exchange) are introducing a sorghum futures contract. It will be interesting to see what the usage will be like. The contract itself is a basis contract to corn. This allows you to trade the basis only, or combine a corn contract with the sorghum basis contract to lock in a sorghum value. It’s an interesting take for a market with world trade value of just US$2.8bn. Especially considering that China dominates the international import market. It may allow US producers and consumers to leverage values with futures to allow sorghum better access to US feed demand in some years too.