The Xi / Trump meeting produced little news for the US farmer to be bullish about. There’s the usual “it was a great meeting” rhetoric but there’s nothing out there for the media or the trade to sink their teeth into just yet.
The market took the “no news” as “no news is bad news” initially. The overnight markets were sharply lower for wheat and soybeans. Soybeans managed to claw back the losses and closed mixed by the bell. The nearby slots a smidge higher, outer months a smidge lower. Canola and rapeseed futures were about the same level of excitement, Winnipeg flat to a smidge higher, as was Paris rapeseed. Crude oil futures retreated, NYMEX crude closed at US$88.71/b in the Dec slot, down US$2.19/b, while Brent shed US$2.78/b in the Dec slot.
Fuel costs and shortages bang in the middle of the northern hemisphere winter grain sowing program have a few of the punters pulling acres back for Russia, Ukraine and the USA, interesting times ahead.
The US market is having a few weather issues. Delays in the US soybean harvest has pushed crushers into the market in search of nearby beans. Widening basis in some regions. There were reports of 60mm – 100mm of rainfall across south central Nebraska. Those guys would be wondering who killed the Chinaman, too dry all season, pull out a header to harvest what survived and down comes the rain. These storms are on top of some recent heavy rain that caused flash flooding in parts of Indiana and some heavy falls across eastern Iowa.
Currently there is little talk of weather damage to the standing soybeans. In this weeks USDA crop progress report the harvest pace across the central corn belt for soybeans was between 2% and 13% complete, early days yet. The condition rating was stable week on week at 46/12-58% G/E, let’s see if that declines in next weeks update.
The market will await any trade deal announcement between the USA and China on Monday their time. Tuesday could be interesting.