The Black Sea states are a mixed bag at present with showers improving the outlook in Russia while short term drought is starting to hurt some crops in central Ukraine. Rainfall in south central Ukraine over the last 60 days has been as low as 50% of the average. The dry weather is restricted to the south central regions though with conditions across the west of the country generally quiet favourable.
Parts of NE France and SW Germany are a little dry with 14 day rainfall values between zero and 10mills. This is in stark contrast to the SE of France, durum country, where falls of 50 – 75 mills have occurred in the same time frame. Keep an eye on Germany in particular going forward, it does appear to be at the worst end of the weather at present. The 15 day forecast shows little relief with around 60% of their usual rainfall expected or in mills that’d be about 5-10mm.
The drier weather in Europe may go a long way to explaining the sudden turnaround in Paris rapeseed futures too, almost AUD$14 this week. The situation in Europe may also be getting some help from flooding in Nth Argentina during bean harvest.

US wheat futures were choppy with soft and hard wheat closing out the session firmer while spring wheat was softer. The weather is on the side of the wheat crop there at present so don’t expect to see too many big surprises going forward.