Rising estimates for the size of the S.American soybean crop continue to put pressure on the oilseed markets. Heavy rain in parts of Argentina early this week resulted in some localised flooding but better weather is expected to help the last of the Southern American bean crop come in on time.
The weaker soybean market and some speculation that EU rapeseed production is expected to increase in 2017 saw both the ICE and Paris canola contracts slip a little although outer month values at Paris were a smidge higher for the new crop. The USDA Vienna branch, what a gig, predicts EU production to increase 600kt year on year and come in around 21mt thanks to better yields. The word on the ground says a little differently and is actually stating the opposite unless weather conditions across the north of France and SW Germany don’t improve significantly in the short term.
The IGC and EC themselves continue to predict similar productions numbers to the USDA, the EC is actually closer to 22.55mt.
US wheat futures were softer across the board as better weather conditions are expected to counter the dry start to the season in the HRW belt. Spring wheat futures are also perilously close to breaching 500c/bu at the MGEX. There is a fair bit of positioning occurring ahead of the April 11th USDA WASDE report at this stage too, the punters are of the opinion world carry over wheat stocks will increase.