Ukraine came out with clarification of the memorandum that caused some market tension last week. Ukraine annually review the amount of wheat that is allowed to be exported. For the year ahead the volume has been reduced 2mt to 8mt.

US wheat futures moved higher on all three grades. Outer month spreads are lifting as US export hopes are higher later in the season as the US may well be able to take advantage of the short fall in production in other major exporters by then. This is also evident in our own local cash market even though it is heavily influenced by drought.
The problems in Europe and Ukraine and even northern Russia have not slowed exports of Russian wheat out of the Black Sea. The export pace from July 1st has even beat the pace set last year with around 3.8mt shipped to date. The early harvest has a lot to do with the pace of Russian exports but it will be interesting to see if it continues into August / Sept.
Ukraine’s export pace is also up 25% across wheat and barley compared to the same period last year.

It’s hard to find a good news story around the global wheat producers. Pakistan is one though with production expected to come in at about 26.3mt, just under last year’s number. Rain at harvest has reduced quality a little but generally the crop has come in better than expected. Much of Pakistan’s wheat is consumed domestically with just 1mt expected to become available for export.