Prices 13/12/19
US wheat futures found support from better than expected weekly sales. At 503kt export sales were well above the trade estimate and much better than the last couple of weeks. The news put 11c/bu (AUD$5.85/t) on the March soft red winter wheat contract at Chicago. The news also coincided with the market actually looking a little over sold after the last two weeks had generally trended lower. The punters took the opportunity to take some profit and turn the chart around, for now, and possibly triggering further buying tonight. Let the cycle start again I guess, rally to make wheat too expense, export sales slump, futures fall, buyers step in, export sales increase, market reacts, prices rise and become too expensive again.
Topping the sales sheet for the US is Japan with 100kt and then the Philippines with 85.9kt. Asian markets continue to make up the lion’s share of the US business at present with Mexico generally taking good volume too but not this time around.
Japan also picked up 25kt of ASW from Australia to go with the 32.5kt of white wheat they bought of the USA.
Canadian wheat exports are ticking along nicely too. It’s interesting to see Australia appearing on the destination sheet with Manildra picking up 182kt this year. With the bulk of what wheat has come off being APH this season it will be interesting to see if this continues.
Canadian durum exports are up 11% year on year, now at 990kt. Italy and Turkey have increased Canadian durum imports dramatically while exports to Morocco are back a smidge to 235kt. Turkey is in for 156kt versus zero last year, Italy 220kt vs 97kt in 2018-19.