The punters are starting to take a stab at US corn and soybean acres for 2021. The numbers so far seem to represent an increase in area for both grains. If trendline yields are achieved it would also see close to, if not, record production of both corn and soybeans in the USA.
For corn the numbers roll through to a slight increase in corn carry-over stocks but in the case of soybeans US stocks are being projected by some to be the tightest in many years. One advisory firm projecting an ending stocks to use ratio for beans as low as 1.6% by the end of the 2021-22 marketing year, just 6 days of supply.
So if you ask me what you should plant in 2021 I’m pretty sure canola is going to come up in the conversation. Although if you haven’t already secured your seed you may be disappointed.
The big questions are yet to be answered and they will probably remain unanswered unto May or early June. That is how big will the Canadian canola plant be and will Brazil complete the second corn crop sowing on time. Already Brazil is lagging weeks behind in some locations leaving analyst to suggest both yields and acreage are likely to be reduced in the next lot of reports due out in April.
In the case of canola Canada should finish planting late May / early June so we’ll have a better idea then. In the meantime World Ag Weather shows that over the last 30 days N.Dakota and the Canadian Prairies have remained very dry seeing just 40% of the average moisture for this time of year. A stark contrast to the now very wet parts of Nebraska and Kansas. Europe starts their oilseed rape harvest in June.
Durum wheat values in SW Saskatchewan remained flat overnight, the dry weather not yet a major concern.