5/1/22 Prices
There was much more bullish than bearish news in the international market overnight.
We see dry weather in S.America driving a sharp recovery in Chicago corn and soybean futures.
Wheat futures there were helped higher by spill over buying from the row crops but also from increased long speculation from the funds and international tender announcements.
Tunisia are looking for wheat, barley and durum, Turkey are extending the zero import tax for wheat, and many other grains, through to 2023.
Looking at the weather map we see much of Brazil is seeing average to below average rainfall in the west and south while rainfall has been above average to the east. It’s still a bit of a mixed bag in Brazil but it is currently in much better shape than its southern neighbour Argentina.
The 14 day precipitation anomaly map for Argentina sums it up pretty quickly. None of the cropping country has received average rainfall with most location now slipping to 20-40% of average for this time of year. The 30day anomaly map looks a little better but still identifies a large number of very dry areas across the major cropping districts of Cordoba where monthly totals are 10-20mm. During this time temperatures have been around 5C warmer than average too.
Currently we see Argentina predicted to produce around 3.5mt of sorghum in 2022. This is around 250kt lower than current USDA data but slightly higher than last year. If the dry hot weather persist this could slip, some analyst are currently showing sub 2.0mt potential.