2/6/22 Prices

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Interesting to see a boat load of durum wheat from India to Turkey has been rejected on phytosanitary concerns. This raises the point of what the quality of Indian wheat is. India also had issues with a shipment of milling wheat into Asia early last month. There are boats on the water heading to other buyers, consumers that usually purchase from the Black Sea and Europe. If these shipments are also rejected for similar reasons, it could be enough to temporarily put the brakes on the current decline in US futures values. Interesting to note sharply lower world prices since these sales were made.

US wheat futures continued to come under pressure again last night. A combination of harvest in the US southern HRW belt, poor weekly wheat exports out of the USA, a very much overbought US wheat futures market and talk of Russia allowing export corridors for Ukraine wheat have all placed a bearish tone over the US wheat futures market this week.
There was also spill over pressure from the corn market, US sowing pace increased significantly week on week. Alleviating some of the fears that corn acres were going to slip below expectations.

Canadian canola futures and Paris rapeseed were both sharply lower in overnight trade. Cash bids for spring wheat out of SE Saskatchewan also fell away. Durum kicked the trend though, the average ex farm price out of SE Sask actually jumping by C$4.83 for a Nov slot. The spread between 1CWAD13 and 1CWRS13.5 milling wheat now in favour of durum by around C$81.51 / tonne. The rainfall outlook for southern Saskatchewan remains poor while the US spring wheat belt should see further rainfall delays. The 7-day outlook for the US HRWW belt is also wet. France and Germany should also see rain.

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