The strength in the US dollar triggered a round of technical selling in US grain futures. Wheat, corn, and soybeans futures at Chicago all closing lower.

The weaker soybean market spilt over into both Winnipeg canola futures and Paris rapeseed, both closing lower. Paris for the Feb slot was back E12.75, roughly AUD$19.48 per tonne, potentially putting pressure on local new crop values in Australia today. Winnipeg held on a little better but still closed C$6.00 lower, about AUD$6.81 per tonne. Cash bids across SE Saskatchewan for a Dec lift back about C$4.00.
Wheat futures found pressure from outside markets, the weaker soybeans and corn, and from the continued operation of the grain corridor out of the Black Sea for Ukraine grains. Russia has stood by the agreement to date but continue to say that the agreement was struck in good faith that the grain would be destined to the poorer nations struggling to feed themselves and not the EU or as Putin puts it, unfriendly nations. Either way, this was not stipulated in the agreement thus the best payer is fair game for the Ukraine product.
It does raise fears that Putin may not honour the agreement past the expiry date and instead try to negotiate who Ukraine can sell to going forward from there. At the moment, according to western media, Putin’s ability to negotiate appears to be being eroded very quickly by some good advances by the Ukraine defences.
The recent rally in US wheat futures appears to have priced US wheat out of the export market to some degree. The weekly USDA export sales data was poor, with just 228kt of new business on the books. Year on year US wheat exports are going OK, just a little better than last year.
There was some talk of river issues in the US, low levels reducing barge capacity for corn movement.