28/11/22 Prices

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Wheat was the big loser in the US futures market overnight. Chicago soft red winter wheat sharply so, hard red winter wheat and spring wheat with single digit losses. Corn and soybean futures were steady to firmer by the close. Pressure came from both the EU and Russian supplies on the international market. Australian values are also much better into the Asian markets than US wheat out of the PNW.
Paris milling wheat futures closed higher, up E5.50 on the nearby contract, taking back much of the loss from the previous session.  London feed wheat futures were also higher by the close. The stronger US dollar had a bit to do with the decline in US futures too, but fundamental pressure is the major hurdle. Lacklustre weekly sales and exports from the US continue to drag on price.

Slow inspection speeds by the Russian team involved in Ukraine Black Sea wheat export agreement is creating a little friction. Russia refuses to increase staff numbers to cater for the volume of ships expected to be loaded. Prior to the extension of the Grain Corridor agreement inspection pace was between 5 – 11 ships per data. It is currently estimated between 0 – 5 ships per day.
In the end any restrictions on Ukraine exports now will simply create higher ending stocks as we move forward. Potentially capping the price of any possible rallies for new crop wheat from that region. Unless the conflict continues for a longer period than expected. Ukraine production will surely reduce enough to counter slow exports by then.

French winter wheat is powering along, now rated at 38% tillered, this compares to just 7% tillered at this time last year. Warmer than avg temperatures.

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