US wheat futures found support from both the technical side and the fundamental side of the market last night. Technical short covering / profit taking was noted as January closed out. Fundamentally the condition the US HRW crop went into winter is now regaining some traction as we near their spring. This combined with a severe winter storm bringing icy conditions to a large slice of the US HRW belt over the last 3 days was also considered bullish.
Night time temperature at Topeka Kansas fell to -12C, Garden City in the far west of Kansas has seen the minimum as low as -16C for the last three mornings, daytime temperature there failing to climb above -6C since Sunday. Enid Oklahoma is a little warmer but did fall to as low as -11C last night. These low temperatures combined with poor snow cover and a struggling crop does raise the risk of winter kill in the US HRW belt.

The weather map for Argentina isn’t looking as good as it was a couple of days ago. The southern part of Cordoba is expected to see some nice follow up rain towards the end of this week, but much of the Pampas and Santa Fe area is expected to see less than 10mm. That doesn’t go far when daily temperatures have average 35C+ for weeks on end.

The Black Sea Grain Corridor Deal negotiated by the UN with Russia and Ukraine has been a major success story during the Russian war on Ukraine. https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/vessel-movements has all the numbers if you are interested. The deal has had a major impact on wheat prices over the last few months and will continue to as long as the conflict remains. This has led to some speculation in the trade that the deal may or may not be extended once the current expiry date is reached in mid-March. Nothing like a bit of uncertainty to keep the market interesting.